Ursa's exile and Azulon's death put an end to those original plans. With Ozai now the Fire Lord, him and his father's assumed plans to remove Zuko from the picture and anoint Azula continued. In reality, Zuko was doomed to be killed or exiled if he did anything wrong, regardless of how small that wrong thing was. Him speaking out at the council meeting was the opportunity he was looking for. Had Azula done something like that, he would either say something like "Azula, silence yourself!
When Ozai confronted his son in the Agni Kai, he intended on killing him if he fought back and banishing him if not. None of this supposed discipline would have occurred at all had Zuko been an only child. In regards to what would Ozai and Azula have done had they never found an excuse to get Zuko out of the picture, the likely result would have been an Agni Kai between the two siblings.
When Zuko challenges his sister to an Agni Kai in the series finale, she states: "Let's settle this, just you and me, brother, the showdown that was always meant to be: Agni Kai!
No matter what Zuko did in his life, he was always doomed to be hurt by his family. Being sent on a task to capture the Avatar who had been missing for a century seemed like a perfect way to get him out of the picture. While a villain, there were many moments his angsty teenaged mind caused him to make blunders that affected both him and the Avatar. As a hero, there were many moments when Zuko thought he was helping but was not.
Zuko meeting Jet seemed like it was a step in the right direction. Even though Jet was extremely problematic, he could have shown Zuko how bad the Fire Nation was.
Unfortunately, he never got the chance. Due to his proximity to Zuko, and therefore Iroh, he saw Iroh heat his tea, and thus he was convinced the two were Fire Nation fugitives. While he was not wrong, his obsession with proving this led to trouble for both himself and Zuko. It could have been avoided if Zuko had not befriended Jet. The entire reason Zuko was forced to leave home as an exiled prince was because he spoke up during a war council.
His father challenged him to an Agni Kai as punishment, something that was extremely abusive. Of course, Zuko would not fight his father, so his father scarred him and sent him away.
Zuko thought voicing his opinion and refusing to fight his father, instead of submitting to him, was the best course of action, but in reality, it enraged his father, though this says way more about Ozai than Zuko. He thought this was the best course of action. It would reunite him with his family and restore his position in the royal family hierarchy. Unfortunately, this came at a great cost. He tried to protect him and get him out of trouble, and when the family was put in danger, he swooped in to fight for them.
However, he used firebending to beat the bullies, and this caused the village, who hated the Fire Nation, to hate him. Whatever Zuko might have done, his punishment was never going to fit the crime.
The Avatar: The Last Airbender comics fill in some of the gaps to strengthen this theory. In the show, it's hinted in a flashback that the previous Fire Lord, Azulon, ordered Ozai to kill a young Zuko as punishment for conspiring against Iroh. It's never clear how these things all connect. However, the comics reveal that Ozai really was going to kill Zuko on his own father's order.
Afterward, Ursa went into hiding and changed her appearance permanently. The Fire Nation prince was only years-old when he spoke out against the general and faced his father in Agni Kai. At the time, Zuko believed himself ready to be included in major decisions and it was only because he pestered his uncle Iroh that he was allowed into the war council to begin with. At that tender an age, the incident was surely traumatizing to Zuko, who spent the next two years working to find and kill Aang so as to appease his abusive father.
That means Zuko was years-old when The Last Airbender began airing. With all the information we have, this theory makes a lot of sense. Ozai clearly favored his daughter Azula.
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